| 초록 |
This study analyzes the economic impacts of Korea-China (KC) and Korea-China-Japan (KCJ) free trade agreements (FTA) using a recursive dynamic global CGE model, PEP-w-t with the GTAP DB 8. The CGE model is revised so that it can incorporate the minimum market access rice trade policy of Korea. Agricultural sectors are very disaggregated in the model because the impact on agriculture has been the most concerned issue in the three countries. From the perspective of Korea, the KC FTA is preferred to the KCJ FTA when only the GDP growth rate is considered. Japan is going to be the biggest winner of the KCJ FTA while Korea is going to obtain much higher GDP growth under the KC FTA. However, when the agricultural sector is concerned, the KCJ FTA is much more preferred because the agricultural imports from China will increase substantially under the KC FTA where the Japanese market is still closed. On the contrary, when Japan also participates in the FTA, the differences in scenarios on agricultural trade liberalization play relatively little impact on Korean agriculture.
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