| 초록 |
This paper studies effects of climate change such as high temperature and localized heavy rainfall on the yield of rice which has been the traditional staple food in Korea. This paper has two purposes. The first is to analyze impacts for the yield of rice by constructing weather data and the second is to project the future yield of rice by using future weather data which is generated from the high-resolution Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5(RCP 8.5) and the aforementioned estimation equation for the yield of rice. In an econometric model which analyzes the yield of milled rice, several factors are identified including time-trend, monthly average temperature, cumulative deviation between daily maximum and minimum temperature, frost variable which is composed of daily minimum temperature, daily maximum and minimum temperature, frost variable which is composed of daily minimum temperature, degree of heavy rainfall and yield of milled rice of last period as independent variables. The panel data is constructed for this analysis covering from 1991 to 2011 based on 8 provinces. Our finding is the effect of average temperature on yield is positive, but gradually declining. In addition to this, we can also find that the yield has positive relationship with the deviation of daily temperature and yield of last period, while the yield has negative relationship with the frost variable and degree of heavy rainfall. The result shows that all independent variables are statistically significant. Future projection based on the high-resolution RCP 8.5 shows that the level of future yield maintains for some periods and then is going to decline.
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