농업경제연구

Korean Agricultural Economics Association

제목 Assessing the Uncertainty of Land Based Carbon Sequestration: a Parameter Uncertainty Analysis with a Global Land use Model
저자 Yoon Hyung Kim
발행정보 53권 3(영문)호 (2012년 9월) 페이지 1~19
키워드
초록 This paper analyzes the effect of uncedrtainty in several key parameters on forest land use and carbon sequestration. Monte Carlo techniques are used to turn the global forest model with no probability (Sohngen & Mendelsohn, 2003; 2007) into a proper probability model through Latin hypercube sampling. The Monte Carlo simulations indicated that most of the uncertainty in forest area in developed countries relates to uncertainty in parameters of the biomass function while in developing countries, where deforestation is more important (e.g., Brazil), the simulation showed the parameters of land supply elasticity to have the most important implications for carbon supply. The resuts also provide information that can be used to estimate uncertainty intervals for carbon sequestration cost functions.
논문파일 농업경제연구-2012(53권제3호)-영문-01.pdf