농업경제연구

Korean Agricultural Economics Association

제목 돈육선물의 헤지성과
저자 김석진, 윤영준, 도영호
발행정보 52권 2호 (2011년 6월) 페이지 27~49
키워드
초록 This paper estimates optimal hedge ratios and compares their hedge performance in the newly incepted Korean lean hog futures market. We use daily prices of lean hog spot and futures contracts from July 21, 2008 to January 29, 2010, and employ the time-varying bivariate GARCH(1,1) model as well as various time-invariant models(OLS, VECM). Interestingly, the hedge performance of the OLS model is highest for the within-sample period. For the out-of-sample period, the hedge performance of the bivariate GARCH(1,1) model is highest, which beats that of the OLS model by small margins, though. Our results imply that a simple OLS hedge model is good enough, compared to other models including complex time-varying hedge models, especially in immature futures markets.
논문파일 농업경제연구-2011(52권2호)-02.pdf