농업경제연구

Korean Agricultural Economics Association

제목 저장사과 최적 출하시기 결정 모형 개발-시뮬레이션을 결합한 EV 모델을 중심으로-
저자 김태후, 서상택
발행정보 52권 1호 (2011년 3월) 페이지 29~48
키워드
초록 The purpose of this study is to develop an optimal sales decision-making programming for post-harvest apples by using EV model with simulation. To determine sales decision-making, various factors are considered for EV model, including harvesttime price, future expected price, habitual sales, cash requirement, storage cost, loss rate, price fluctuation, and risk aversion. The result shows that if farmers are risk neutral, all types sell apples in the period with the highest expected profit except the minimum sales volume set in each period. As risk aversion parameter increases, more sales are made in the periods close to harvesting period with smaller variance. When risk aversion parameter is extremely high, all types provide apples in sales periods with minimum variance except the minimum sales volumes set in each period. Additionally, it shows that most farmers get the highest income when they have no constraints in both minimum sales volume and sales periods.
논문파일 농업경제연구-2011(52권1호)-02.pdf