| 초록 |
This study is a simulation that tests the efficiency of a corn purchasing strategy using historical basis information as an alternative to the conventional cash forward contract based on the public oepn tender. This study used simple historical moving average basis to determine when to use the futures market to hedge corn purchases. The decision rule with the simulation is that buyers should place the long futures hedge only when the quoted basis for a cash forward contract is expected to weaken(fall), and thus resulting in a decrease of net buying price(NBP). The simulation used three different basis forecats, ⅰ.e., a 3-year and 5-year historical average, and an Olympic average. Compared with the conventional corn purchase, the basis strategy resulted in a ￠ 1.72/bu decrease in net buying price for a 3-year average, ￠1.82/bu decrease for a 5-year average, and the largest ￠ 1.89/bu decrease for an Olympic average, but the net buying prices varied little across historical average basis forecasts. The results imply that the corn purchasing strategy using the historical basis information can save as mcuh as U$33,860~37,200 when the Panamax-sized 50,000 metric tons of corn is purchased.
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