농업경제연구

Korean Agricultural Economics Association

제목 생산형태별 감자의 수급예측모형 개발
저자 고성보
발행정보 44권 4호 (2003년 12월) 페이지 221~241
초록 The aim of this study is to establish models of white potato forecasting and prediction. For the purposes, demand and supply models of the white potato were developed. In the model, white potato was classified into spring white potato and autum white potato according to production season. In order to analyze the effects of alternative policy scenarios on the white potato sector, simulation runs were experimented to 2004, with five different scenarios for the GDP and the amount of white potato imports. Under the basic scenario, the cultivated area of white potato would increase by 1,301ha to 25,431ha from 24,130ha during the simulation period. The white potato production would also increase by 70,000M/T to 660,000M/T from 590,000M/T during to same period. Therefore the demand of white potato per capita would increase by 1kg to 13.8kg from 12.84kg during the same period.
논문파일 농업경제연구-2003(44권제4호)-12.pdf