초록 |
This paper is to determine the major factors explaining the variation in the pig farm price using alternative time series models, and to search the suitable forecasting model among these models. The variation factors of farm price were decided by Stepwise Selection Method and Granger Causality Test. Also, the selected variations by these methods have application to time series models of Transfer Function, Vector Autoregression(VAR), and Vector Error Correction Model(VECM) that allow exogenous variables in time series analysis. As a result, the optimum forecasting model of pig farm price select time series model that the value of Root Mean Square Error(RMSE) and Mean Absolute Percent Error(MAPE) are minimum.
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