| 초록 |
Various environmental factors make rice farmers to face a challenge in farming activity,although we achieved certain technological progress in rice cultivation. Also, due to the climate change, disease and insect pest (DIP) outbreak is expected to increase, which consequently may impose another challenge to farmers. However, DIP forecasting model which produces qualitative information based on previous DIP outbreak events needs to be revised. This study set the DIP forecasting model reflecting spatial effects of DIP outbreak and related weather variables to amend current version of damage function. We find statistically significant positive spatialautocorrelation effects and the range of effective distance is revealed by spatial correlograms analysis. The pairwise association analysis shows existence of strong spatial association between sheath blight and bacterial blight, the Mantel test also finds spatial correlation between environmental similarity which is driven by weather conditions at sampling station and spatial·time lag of sheath blight and bacterial blight outbreak. The spatial weight matrix and other weather-related variables adequately explain sheath blight occurrence conditions in damage function. Finally, RCP 8.5 climate change scenario forecasts the sheath blight outbreak rate and we find the estimated outbreak rate fluctuation depends on regional weather variation andplausibly changed growth duration of rice. This final results insist the need of regionally specified DIP adaptation measure.
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