농업경제연구

Korean Agricultural Economics Association

제목 스튜던트 T 코퓰라 모델을 이용한 지역별 쌀 생산량의 공간적 종속성 추정
저자 김태후, 김성섭, 서상택
발행정보 58권 3호 (2017년 9월) 페이지 25~44
키워드
초록 This study aims to estimate spatial dependence for rice production yield among eight provinces in South Korea. Student’s T copula is used to estimate the spatial dependence and tail dependence. Yearly historical rice production yield data(1960-2016) for eight provinces are de-trended and normalized as year 2016 to estimate spatial dependence and tail dependence. The result shows that rice production yields for most provinces are strongly correlated to each other. Also, tail dependenceshows a strong relationship for each other except some provinces. This implies that crop insurance programs should be partly supported by government due to thepossibility of high systemic risk. In addition, regional production yield risk modelling imposing the spatial dependence is proper than an unified aggregate risk modelling.
논문파일 KJAE(2017-Vol58No03)-Korean-02.pdf